Can a 33% RPS Requirement be Met?
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) staff has proposed that a 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) be adopted as part of the Scoping Plan for the Global Warming Solutions Act. (see page 24 of the draft Scoping Plan. ) Is that achievable? If it is, what are its implications?
The current California RPS calls for 20% by 2010. As proposed by CARB staff, 33% would be required by 2020. CARB staff also calls for the RPS to apply to municipal utilities as well as the investor owned ones. This would be a big departure from the current RPS which only applies to investor owned utilities (IOUs). CARB itself may not have the authority to impose the 33% RPS and CARB staff openly acknowledge that they will require cooperation from other agencies such as the California Energy Commission and the California Public Utilities Commission. It's not clear that any of those agencies have jurisdiction over municipally owned utilities and so legislative action might also be required to impose a RPS on them. Most, but not all, municipally owned utilities in California have voluntarily adopted goals of achieving 20% or more of their electricity from renewable sources.
Its going to be significant challenge to achieve 33% by 2020. Just achieving 20% by 2010 is proving to be a challenge and the the municipal utilities are not even mandated as part of that mix. Getting there will require a significant amount of new renewable energy generation development from wind, solar PV, solar thermal, and Geothermal. Wave, tidal and current generation might also be required. So will lots of transmission. The struggles that California has already had trying to get to 20% show that the detailed environmental reviews and complex power procurement processes will require a lot of energy (pun intended) to overcome.
But a 33% RPS will mean a significant amount jobs in the development, construction, operation and management of renewable energy. It will also likely be a boon for renewable energy in general, with new technologies, new settings and achievement of renewable energy at an unprecedented scale.
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I don't blame you for looking at this as a mountain to climb, the current model and predominatly deployed technologies make renewable capacity seem like a very expensive proposition. However, it seems like lower-cost technology and a better economic model of renewable generation are right around the corner. I wouldn't be suprised if we hit 40-50% by 2020.