On January 11, 2022, the California Energy Commission (CEC) issued an update to its Summer 2022 Stack Analysis. Previously, on September 8, 2021, the CEC issued a revised Summer 2022 Stack Analysis that showed potential energy shortfalls ranging from 200 MW to 4,350 MW during the months of July through September 2022, in the evening hours. The early evening hours have become one of the most challenging period for California reliability. Abundant solar is available to meet daytime peak load, but as that solar rolls off the system in the evening, alternate resources are needed to meet the evening demand.
To update the Stack Analysis, the CEC updated information about new resources, including procurements ordered by the California Public Utilities Commission. The CEC also updated demand forecasts. A substantial increase in available resources, including 1,230 megawatts of energy storage, has improved the outlook for summer 2022. Using a 22.5 percent procurement reserve margin to address impacts to demand from climate change and potential extreme weather events, the updated Stack Analysis finds that there continues to be a risk for energy shortfalls during September 2022, ranging from 200 to 2,400 MW.